About
I'm a practical futurist.
Which means I make dated predictions and tell you when I was wrong.
This page is how I do it.
Twenty-five years at the frontier of technology disruption. Information security, blockchain, digital assets, now AI. Long enough to have lived through three full disruption cycles. Long enough to have called some things right and other things wrong. Both matter. The right calls show I can see around corners. The wrong ones show I'm honest about it.
If you're reading this because AI is rewriting your job and you're trying to figure out what to do, you're the person this site exists for.
What I'm calling right now
Predictions published with dates, confidence levels, and the evidence that would change my mind. Updated as the world updates me.
Crypto custodians are Webvan, not Amazon.
75% confidence · By end of 2027
Anchorage, Fireblocks, the whole tier. Great gross numbers, no moat, no path to profitability. Custody is a commodity. The moat will be in infrastructure rails, not in holding the keys.
What would change my mind: a custodian achieving >30% net margins consistently, or custody becoming a regulated monopoly via legislation.
Enterprise crypto adoption runs through audit firms, not crypto-native companies.
70% confidence · By 2028
Enterprises trust their auditors. Canton, DTCC, tokenization. Every serious conversation starts in the advisory relationship, not at a Web3 conference. Crypto-native firms don't have the compliance credibility to close enterprise.
Mid-career disruption coaching becomes a real market by 2028.
80% confidence
AI is creating the same pattern I've survived three times. Most coaching targets early-career or C-suite. The whitespace is the 15-to-25-year professional watching their domain get disrupted. That's the audience for Plan for Thursday. That's the audience for this site.
The Canaries are already singing.
85% confidence in the signals
Three measurable signals: AI displacement of professional services, stablecoin/USD functional convergence, quantum approaching Q-Day. These aren't speculative futures. They're trackable right now, with data. The dashboards live at /canaries.
What I called wrong
“The CLARITY Act will pass.”
Called February 2026 · Withdrawn March 2026
Gave it 75% confidence, was wrong on the bill itself. The deeper thesis — that regulatory momentum on crypto was real — held. Stablecoin legislation moved first. The lesson: I was anchoring on one bill when the right anchor was the direction of motion.
“Crypto would mirror the dot-com bubble.”
RSM Executive Leadership Team, 2018
I put up the dot-com chart with an arrow right before the crash. “We are here.” The room read it as “we're about to crash and burn.” What I was actually saying was the opposite: the crash isn't the end of crypto, the infrastructure survivors come next. Webvan and Amazon, again.
Where I was wrong: crypto never traced that curve. It crashed in waves — 2018 ICO bust, quiet years, then FTX in 2022. Not one cliff. The framing only landed when FTX collapsed and people remembered I'd called the shape, even though the shape wasn't quite right. Bad call but not destructive. FTX rescued the messaging.
The lesson: cross-cycle analogies are reliable for the shape; the when and how are where humility lives.
“I'll get to it later.”
Pre-2026
For years. Health. Presence. The simplification project. All important-but-not-urgent, all permanently next-quarter. Then a Thursday happened that made “later” look like the luxury it always was. The lesson is the one in the book: stop planning for five years from now. Start planning for Thursday.
What I'm watching
Live dashboards. Data, not opinions. Updated continuously.
The frame: track signals that are already moving. The speculation isn't the story. The data is.
The bio
Information security since 1999. Built RSM's blockchain and digital asset services. Lived through the dot-com crash, the 2008 financial crisis, and crypto winter from inside financial services. Plan for Thursday in progress. Oak Park with Carrie and the kids.
Last updated May 2026. Predictions reviewed quarterly.