All canariesView the open-source dashboardSource & data on GitHubSource observation: 2026-09-21. Page refreshes do not imply new observations.
The Signals
The Quantum Qanary
“How close are we to Q-Day?”
2029Q-Day midpoint +/-1
Q-Day midpoint remains about 3 years out on the current trajectory.
Estimated window 2028–2030
Progress toward Q-Day
Factoring
40%
Logical Qubits
55%
Divincenzo
100%
How it's measured
A weighted estimate of quantum progress toward breaking current cryptography — factoring records, logical-qubit counts, published roadmaps, and error-correction milestones. 'Q-Day' is the point at which RSA and ECC become vulnerable.