The Signals
The Stablecoin Signal
“When does the off-ramp disappear?”
3 of 5 consumer interchangeability layers have recorded activity; 1 are unknown. Stablecoin supply is 1.57% of M1. Backend settlement is tracked separately.
The interchangeability ladder
Key metrics
How it's measured
Tracks consumer stablecoin interchangeability across hold, earn, spend, borrow and invisible use. This consumer view is separate from backend settlement: processors can move value on new rails while customers continue seeing dollars. Financial Rails tracks institutional payments, securities and collateral through dated source records; a pilot or limited production event is not recurring adoption.
Backend settlement has its own evidence
The consumer interchangeability ladder does not measure all institutional adoption. Payment processors can settle using stablecoins while customers continue seeing dollars. The Financial Rails pilot tracks dated payments, securities and collateral evidence, separating demonstrations from recurring use.
View Financial Rails evidence