All canaries

The Signals

The Stablecoin Signal

“When does the off-ramp disappear?”

3of 5 layers

3 of 5 consumer interchangeability layers have recorded activity; 1 are unknown. Stablecoin supply is 1.57% of M1. Backend settlement is tracked separately.

3 of 5 interchangeability layers active

The interchangeability ladder

Hold
Emerging
Earn
Emerging
Spend
Emerging
Borrow
Not started
Invisible
unknown

Key metrics

1.57%
Stablecoin supply vs. M1
1.83%
Commercial volume vs. ACH
14.4%
Cross-border remittance share
2.75%
Treasury holdings vs. T-bills
72M
Active wallets (millions)
118 days
GENIUS Act days until effective

How it's measured

Tracks consumer stablecoin interchangeability across hold, earn, spend, borrow and invisible use. This consumer view is separate from backend settlement: processors can move value on new rails while customers continue seeing dollars. Financial Rails tracks institutional payments, securities and collateral through dated source records; a pilot or limited production event is not recurring adoption.

Backend settlement has its own evidence

The consumer interchangeability ladder does not measure all institutional adoption. Payment processors can settle using stablecoins while customers continue seeing dollars. The Financial Rails pilot tracks dated payments, securities and collateral evidence, separating demonstrations from recurring use.

View Financial Rails evidence
View the open-source dashboardSource & data on GitHubSource observation: 2026-09-26. Page refreshes do not imply new observations.