The Executive's Guide to Quantum Security

The Quantum Shift Is Already Here

In 1453, Constantinople's walls—which had stood impregnable for a thousand years—fell in 53 days. Not because attackers got stronger. Because cannons made walls obsolete.

Quantum computing is the cryptographic equivalent of cannons.

This isn't about building thicker walls. It's about the walls no longer mattering. Every security model built on the assumption that certain math problems are "computationally infeasible" faces categorical obsolescence.

This guide distills the essential knowledge every executive needs to understand the quantum threat, plan the migration, and position for the opportunities ahead.

What You'll Learn

The Quantum Threat Model — Why this is categorical change, not incremental risk
Timeline Acceleration — How estimates dropped 95% in six years (and what that means)
The Harvest Now, Decrypt Later Problem — Your data is being recorded today
Migration Math — The uncomfortable arithmetic of 3-5 year migrations and 7-year variance
Economics of Attack — How decryption costs will decline and what that means for your data
Strategic Opportunities — Drug discovery, climate modeling, and applications that change everything
Action Framework — The questions your CISO should be answering this quarter

Part 1: Understanding the Threat

Cannons and Castles

For decades, encryption has relied on mathematical problems that classical computers can't solve in useful timeframes. RSA-2048 would take classical computers longer than the age of the universe to crack.

Quantum computers don't solve these problems faster—they solve them differently. Shor's algorithm, running on a sufficiently powerful quantum computer, reduces centuries to hours.

Key insight: This isn't a faster attack. It's a different category of computation that renders current defenses obsolete.

The Acceleration No One Expected

Consider the requirements to break RSA-2048:

Year	Estimated Qubits Required
2019	20 million
2023	4 million
2025	Under 1 million

A 95% reduction in six years. If you're planning based on linear progress assumptions, you're already behind.

Three Paths Converging

Three major technology vendors are racing toward cryptographically-relevant quantum computers—each via different technical approaches:

IBM — Superconducting qubits (largest current systems)
Microsoft — Topological qubits (most error-resistant design)
Google — Error correction breakthroughs (Willow chip, December 2024)

All three target 2029 for practical cryptographic applications. When multiple independent paths converge on the same timeline, the uncertainty shifts from whether to when.

The Willow Breakthrough

In December 2024, Google's Willow chip demonstrated something previously theoretical: error rates decrease as qubit counts increase. Previous systems showed the opposite—more qubits meant more errors.

This converts quantum computing from a theoretical problem to an engineering problem. Engineering problems attract capital. Capital accelerates timelines.

Part 2: The Real Threat — Harvest Now, Decrypt Later

Your Data Is Being Recorded Today

Sophisticated adversaries aren't waiting for quantum computers. They're recording encrypted traffic now, storing it for future decryption.

The math is simple:

Data intercepted today: encrypted
Data stored for 5-10 years: still encrypted
Data after quantum decryption becomes available: readable

This isn't theoretical. Major intelligence agencies have operated this way for decades. The difference now is the timeline to decryption is measurable.

Data Sensitivity Lifespan

Not all data carries equal risk. Consider sensitivity lifespans:

Data Type	Sensitivity Window
Credit card numbers	2-3 years (cards refresh)
Employee PII	~10 years
Customer data	7-15 years
Trade secrets & IP	Indefinite
M&A communications	Indefinite
Strategic plans	5-20 years

If your data has indefinite sensitivity and it's being transmitted today, your migration deadline was yesterday.

The Canaries Already Migrated

August 2024 marked a turning point. Three major platforms quietly deployed post-quantum cryptography:

Apple iMessage — PQ3 protocol
Signal — PQXDH protocol
Chrome — Kyber/ML-KEM integration

When Apple, Signal, and Google all move in the same month, that's not coincidence. That's companies who've seen the classified threat briefings acting on them.

Part 3: Migration Reality

The Federal Deadline

CNSA 2.0 (Commercial National Security Algorithm Suite) mandates begin January 2027 for federal systems. This creates a compliance cascade:

Federal agencies must comply
Federal contractors must comply to maintain contracts
Subcontractors must comply to work with primes
Enterprise RFPs begin requiring post-quantum compliance

If you do business with the federal government—directly or through partners—your timeline is already set.

Migration Math

Here's the arithmetic that keeps CISOs awake:

Migration duration: 3-5 years (for comprehensive cryptographic inventory and replacement)
Q-Day estimates: 2028-2035 (7-year range)
Variance exceeds migration time

If Q-Day is 2030 and migration takes 3 years, you needed to start in 2027. But you won't know Q-Day until it happens.

The only safe assumption: start now.

The Inventory Problem

The algorithm swap is the easy part. The hard part? Finding every system that uses cryptography.

Most organizations can't answer basic questions:

Where are your HSMs?
What certificates are in your IoT devices?
Which legacy systems use hardcoded cryptographic libraries?
What's in your vendor supply chain?

The inventory is the migration. Everything else is execution.

Watch the Insurers

Want an early warning signal? Watch cyber insurance actuaries.

When insurers can quantify harvest-now-decrypt-later risk in their models, they'll price it. When they price it, they'll require mitigation. When they require mitigation, migration accelerates faster than any regulation could mandate.

The insurance industry may become the most powerful accelerant for post-quantum adoption.

Part 4: The Economics of Attack

Day One Isn't the Threat

Early quantum decryption will be expensive—perhaps $500M per operation. That limits attackers to:

Nation-states
Sovereign wealth funds
The most valuable corporate targets

But that's Day One pricing. Technology cost curves are predictable:

Timeline	Viable Attackers
Day 1	Nation-states, sovereign wealth
Year 2	Billion-dollar enterprises
Year 5	Mid-market companies
Year 10	Commodity pricing

The question isn't "Is our data valuable enough to attack today?" It's "When will our data be valuable enough relative to attack costs?"

The Asymmetric Bet

For data with long sensitivity windows, the economics favor patient attackers:

Harvest cost: Marginal (storage is cheap)
Wait time: 5-10 years
Decryption cost: Declining annually
Value of trade secrets: Potentially billions

Attackers have unlimited patience. Your data doesn't.

Part 5: Beyond Security — The Quantum Opportunity

The Narrative Problem

Quantum coverage focuses almost exclusively on threats. But the most transformative applications aren't about breaking things—they're about building things impossible to build today.

Drug Discovery Acceleration

Current drug development: 10+ years average, billions of dollars, 90%+ failure rate.

The bottleneck isn't biology—it's computation. Simulating how proteins fold, how drugs bind to receptors, how molecules interact requires modeling quantum mechanical effects. Classical computers approximate. Quantum computers simulate natively.

Potential impact: Drug candidates evaluated in weeks instead of years. Rare disease treatments that couldn't justify R&D investment become viable.

The Haber-Bosch Problem

The Haber-Bosch process—invented in 1913—produces fertilizer that feeds half the world's population. It requires 450°C temperatures and 200 atmospheres of pressure, consuming 2-3% of global energy.

Nature fixes nitrogen at room temperature using the nitrogenase enzyme. We can't replicate it because we can't computationally model it. The quantum mechanics are too complex for classical simulation.

A quantum solution could eliminate 2-3% of global CO2 emissions while improving fertilizer economics.

Climate Modeling Confidence

Current climate models force approximations that introduce uncertainty. Classical computers can't handle the probabilistic complexity of global climate systems.

Quantum computers handle probability natively. Better models mean better predictions. Better predictions mean policy decisions backed by confidence intervals that matter.

Materials Science Revolution

Superconductors, battery chemistry, catalysts—all limited by our inability to simulate quantum effects in materials. Quantum computers could design:

Room-temperature superconductors
Next-generation battery chemistry
Carbon capture catalysts

The same technology that threatens encryption enables computation that was previously impossible.

Part 6: The CISO Question Framework

Questions to Ask This Quarter

Inventory & Visibility

Do we have a complete cryptographic inventory?
Which systems use cryptography we don't control (vendor, IoT, legacy)?
What's our certificate lifecycle across all systems?

Risk Assessment 4. What data do we transmit with sensitivity windows exceeding 5 years? 5. What's our exposure to harvest-now-decrypt-later for trade secrets? 6. How would competitors or nation-states value our historical communications?

Migration Planning 7. What's our realistic migration timeline (honest assessment)? 8. Which systems can't be migrated and require isolation or replacement? 9. What's our vendor dependency for post-quantum readiness?

Compliance & Contracts 10. Do we have federal contracts affected by CNSA 2.0 timelines? 11. Are customers beginning to ask about quantum readiness? 12. What do our cyber insurance policies say about quantum risk?

Key Takeaways

For Security Leaders

Migration must start now. The inventory is the bottleneck, not the algorithm swap. Begin the cryptographic census immediately.

For Executives

The cost curve ensures your data will eventually be attacked—timing is the only variable. Data with indefinite sensitivity (trade secrets, IP, strategic communications) requires priority migration.

For Board Members

Ask whether your organization can answer the twelve questions above. If not, that's the first deliverable.

For Strategists

Quantum opportunities (drug discovery, climate, materials science) are equally significant to threats. Organizations positioning only for defense miss the larger transformation.

Next Steps

Download this guide and share with your security and executive leadership teams
Initiate a cryptographic inventory — You can't migrate what you can't find
Assess data sensitivity windows — Prioritize based on how long data must remain confidential
Evaluate vendor readiness — Your supply chain is part of your attack surface
Monitor the market signals — Insurance pricing, federal contractor requirements, big tech deployments

About This Guide

This guide synthesizes current research on quantum computing threats and opportunities, translated for executive decision-making. The content focuses on business impact rather than technical implementation details.

For organizations requiring hands-on migration planning, assessment frameworks, or strategic positioning workshops, contact Jay directly to discuss your specific situation.

Last updated: January 2026