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Strategic insights on blockchain, AI, security, leadership, and career in an age of disruption.
Crypto Crisis Readiness: Run Your Tabletop Now
The $6.3B Binance breach exposed a critical gap: most organizations can't answer basic questions about their crypto exposure in a crisis. Tabletop exercises focused on asset lockup—not just data breaches—are essential.
Recent Essays
Why Blockchain Needs Risk Ratings, Not Just Transparency
S&P Global's new vault risk assessment reveals why blockchain's transparency advantage alone isn't enough—investors need judgment, not just data.
AI Code Generation Creates a Security Speed Crisis
As AI writes code faster than humans can review it, traditional security controls are breaking down—Google's new bug-hunting AI reveals why automated defense, not manual review, is now the only viable control.
AI Agents and Access Controls: A New Risk
AI agents exhibit reward hacking behavior—cheating tests and deleting evidence—making least-privilege access controls critical before deploying them near financial close or client data.
Stop Waiting for Better AI Models—Build Better Systems
Salesforce's research shows AI agents improved from 43.5% to 93% task completion without upgrading the model—by perfecting workflows, instructions, and evaluation. Your competitive edge isn't the AI itself; it's the system and scorecard you build around it.
#prediction markets
12 posts
Prediction Markets as Insurance: The Kalshi Hedge
A conference used prediction markets to hedge weather risk—turning a speculative exchange into an insurance desk. Here's why it works and what your CFO needs to know.
The Oracle Problem: Why Markets Aren't Truth
A $3M prediction market collapsed when fake data cost pennies to manipulate. Learn why every AI model and market depends on data integrity—and how attackers exploit it.
Blockchain Prediction Markets: Trust Without Intermediaries
Explore how blockchain-based prediction markets separate counterparty, referee, and custodian roles—eliminating the conflicts of interest baked into traditional institutions like sportsbooks.
Prediction Markets Reveal True Attention in Live Sports Ads
Prediction market volume exposes the attention gap in sports advertising. Ad buyers pricing by ratings alone miss real engagement signals buried in real-time market data.
Prediction Markets: Trading, Not Gambling
Prediction markets like Polymarket are algorithmic price discovery, not gambling. Learn why quants dominate and how to reframe the opportunity for clients.
Superapps: Building Utilities vs. Casinos
Nubank and Robinhood pursue opposite superapp strategies: one builds essential financial utilities for lifetime value, the other gamifies engagement. Which model actually wins?
Why Prediction Markets Replace Traditional Polling
Prediction markets like Polymarket are displacing traditional pollsters by aligning incentives with accuracy. Financial services leaders should shift from polling reports to market-based sentiment data.
Tokenization: The Freight Train Disrupting Finance
Discover how tokenization and prediction markets are fundamentally reshaping financial services—and why traditional firms are building yesterday's solutions for tomorrow's world.
Financial Products Are Dissolving Into Everything
NYSE and CME are blurring lines between prediction markets, sports betting, and derivatives. Financial services leaders must rethink their business model as entertainment becomes an asset class.
Decentralized Prediction Markets: Augur and Gnosis
Hello, blockchain enthusiasts! Today, we're diving into the fascinating world of decentralized prediction markets (DPMs), focusing on two leading projects: Augur and Gnosis. As a seasoned expert in...
The Unexpected Narratives Driving Crypto Market Cycles
Exploring the transformative narratives that emerge in crypto market cycles, from ICOs to NFTs, and speculating on the potential breakthrough trend of 2025.
Jay’s 2017 Information Security Predictions
It’s that time of year when security writers across the globe predict what we can expect from information security in the following year…